Zhai Dongsheng, secretary-general of the China Center for Foreign Strategic Studies, tells you how the CCP infiltrated American society and affected the 2020 elections in the United States. Chinese-English. Please share this.
An old lady with a big nose, a Jew, is a Democratic Party, can speak Chinese, has Chinese nationality, and has a Beijing registered permanent residence. She has lived in China for 30 years. Who is this old lady in America? Discussing the risks of financial openness cannot be summarized by past cases, and then draw a conclusion that the risks are great. Because all inductions are incomplete inductions, there are logical problems. We all know that there are risks in opening up, but there are also benefits. Are there risks or benefits? How to weigh the pros and cons? You can’t use induction but deduction, as I said in the program “Political Economics Qi Di”, the time relationship will not be repeated. In my opinion, there is only one and a half companies selling insurance in the global village, and that is the United States. The U.S. currency is the global reserve currency, so it takes risks for others. The euro is half of the house, and most of the two hundred large and small economies in the global village are paying a price to transfer risks, which is equivalent to insuring customers. There is only one and a half in the global village, and you can open an insurance company to sell insurance. Our China is of a special nature. It is the largest real economy in the global village. Because of various things, it is the largest insured household. How much insurance do we have? Three trillion US dollars, at the peak 4. 2 trillion dollars, the problem is coming. If something happens to us someday, there is a real economic and financial risk. We use three trillion four trillion foreign exchange reserves to find the United States. This is equivalent to an insurance policy. If you ask the United States, you can pay for it and the United States will go bankrupt. The insurance company said sorry and quit. So logically speaking, I have always opposed the original Sino-US linkage method, and I will talk about it later. I have always advocated that the Chinese renminbi should be internationalized, and we should also open an insurance company. If we want to open this insurance company, it is the topic of today. The financial market should be opened up and the capital account should be opened appropriately. We all know that since 2019, especially entering 2020, China’s financial opening has accelerated. Why accelerate? First of all, the first reason is that when China joined the WTO in 2001, we promised that we will open as soon as possible when conditions are right, but it has been 20 years. Teacher Yao just mentioned that foreign financial institutions have come in, but how many of them have come in? In life, do you buy stocks through foreign investment banks? Are you depositing in a foreign bank? At most, insurance companies have a little bit, so we have to think about people in the first half of the night, and then think about ourselves in the second half of the night. It means that you have promised to be open, and you have to honor it, otherwise the door of others is open to you. Openness is mutual. We used to be hooked up in the same way as we just talked about. Now people want to decouple from us. Of course, this is my personal interpretation. Why is it accelerating at this time? First, we promised it 20 years ago. Second, the current Chinese government’s efforts to open the financial market may have something to do with political and tactical considerations. I would like to stress it again. This is my personal guess. why? Because we know that the Trump administration is fighting a trade war with us, why can’t we get the Trump administration? Why can all kinds of problems between China and the United States be resolved between 1992 and 2016? To put it bluntly, in fact, in the past thirty or forty years, we have used its core circle of power in the United States. As I mentioned earlier, Wall Street began to have a very strong influence on the domestic and foreign affairs of the United States in the 1970s, so we There is path dependence. The problem is that the status of Wall Street has declined after 2008. More importantly, after 2016, Wall Street can’t handle Trump. why? Very embarrassing, Trump had a soft breach of contract on Wall Street before, so the two sides had conflicts. During the Sino-US trade war, according to friends from the US, they tried to help, but they were unable to do so. But now we see that Biden has come to power. The traditional political elites and establishments have a very close relationship with Wall Street. of. As you can see, Trump’s son is said to have fund companies around the world. Who helped him build the fund company? There are deals here. So at this time we express a certain amount of goodwill in an appropriate way. My personal understanding is of course limited by my professional foundation. I understand this matter from the perspective of international political economy. I think it has its tactics and politics. The value is in it. On the other hand, China and the United States are opening themselves up. Now we are opening up the financial markets. Many people think that opening up the financial markets means making major concessions to others. Opening up the financial markets is to hug the thighs of the United States, crying and saying you don’t run. Don’t leave me behind, just to not get out of the way. My understanding, on the other hand, may be another tyrannical argument. I just think that by opening up our financial markets, we decouple from the United States in a sense. Let me ask everyone again, why do we get stuck in so many places? I just saw a piece of news at noon today. Our Chief Executive of Hong Kong, Carrie Lam, is now carrying a lot of cash if she goes to the street to buy vegetables, bags and clothes. Why, she no longer has a bank and bank account, she can’t do it. Credit card card), you can’t use financial payment tools, you can only use cash to buy things, why? She was sanctioned by the United States. Then why are we sanctioned by the United States? Why are they sanctioned by the United States in areas such as financial payments, cross-border payments, chips, and software? Why are the underlying science and technology sanctioned by the United States? What is the reason behind it? Of course, there are many reasons. I want to make a point here. This reason lies in the previous Sino-US linkage. In the 1980s, the Northeast was very prosperous. The Northeast was the root of the entire Chinese economy. Our universities did their own scientific research on the bottom. At that time, we were a single tree. You can understand it as a tree, with its own roots, its own stem, its own stem, its own leaves, and its own flowers. Of course it is smaller. Compared with the world capitalist system, the world market system, and the division of labor system dominated by the United States, this is much smaller and weaker, but it is a complete and independent industrial system. China joined the world market system dominated by the United States, especially after 1992, when we attracted large-scale investment, the southeast coast developed rapidly, and the northeast declined. Why? In fact, it just clicked along the middle of the tree trunk and grafted the upper external part directly to its root and stem. The energy and the market are huge, so it flourishes quickly and bears fruit. We are all enjoying the results of this decision today. Everyone is having a good time, but the problem is that all choices and all strategies have their costs. The price is that our original roots and branches have withered. Originally, we had two or three hundred companies that made chips and the entire industrial chain of lithography machines. All of them withered, because it was enough to import successful, smaller, higher-tech things. Our software does not need to be developed, and it is better to use other people’s software than our own. So before we merged into US-led globalization, we were the winners, but note that this has a price. The predicament we are facing today is precisely the performance of the inevitable price of such an integration method. The previous integration was FDI (foreign direct investment). You are welcome to open a factory here. Then trade is fully opened, but finance is not open, and the capital account is indirect investment (portfolio investment) This area is not open. Because of the previous way of fusion, we can actually be said to be parasitic or grafting. In its system, this has a price. What are the main stocks that have risen in recent years? For those digital giants, in the past twelve years in the post-financial crisis era, stock prices have risen so much. Whose asset prices have risen sharply? Ali is the “Three Horses”. “Three Horses” took the lead, and other digital technologies have made a lot of money in the Chinese market. Very bargaining power, bargaining position, and pricing power. Have you earned their capital appreciation? Can you make money when you speculate in the Chinese stock market? Can’t make it. Where is the capital appreciation brought about by that part of the economic reform? Nasdaq, this is how we originally linked to the United States. So the United States said it would delink from China. I think this is not a bad thing. The industrialization we want has been achieved, and it is now decoupling. I think it’s in the right place, but it scares some of us who don’t know the underlying logic inside. I think opening up the financial market is actually the money we Chinese people save in the future. It is directly converted into capital and investment in the financial market in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Our savings are directly converted into investment, not into foreign exchange reserves and placed in US Treasury bonds, European Treasury bonds, and Japanese Treasury bonds, but directly in China’s domestic financial market. Financial players from all over the world come over and turn it into investment in this market. From this logical point of view, when our financial opening is completed, we will speculate in Shanghai stocks and Shenzhen stocks in the future. The chances of winning will be a little bit bigger, but they are still limited. In fact, in this process, don’t think that finance is virtual and unimportant. Finance, education, and high-tech research and development are actually the roots of that tree. We have to plant this root in our yard and grow our own roots. . Some people say that this openness means that foreigners should come in to earn our money. This is different. In the past, our companies went to other people’s listings to follow other people’s rules, and it was mainly people’s investors who profited from our companies. But now it is planted in our own yard, when to water and when to bask in the sun, the rules are up to us, so the dominant power is different. I have timed out. Sorry, Wang Haihan is offended. thank you all. ? Can you make money when you speculate in the Chinese stock market? Can’t make it. Where is the capital appreciation brought about by that part of the economic reform? Nasdaq, this is how we originally linked to the United States. So the United States said it would delink from China. I think this is not a bad thing. The industrialization we want has been achieved, and it is now decoupling. I think it’s in the right place, but it scares some of us who don’t know the underlying logic inside. I think opening up the financial market is actually the money we Chinese people save in the future. It is directly converted into capital and investment in the financial market in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Our savings are directly converted into investment, not into foreign exchange reserves and placed in US Treasury bonds, European Treasury bonds, and Japanese Treasury bonds, but directly in China’s domestic financial market. Financial players from all over the world come over and turn it into investment in this market. From this logical point of view, when our financial opening is completed, we will speculate in Shanghai stocks and Shenzhen stocks in the future. The chances of winning will be a little bit bigger, but they are still limited. In fact, in this process, don’t think that finance is virtual and unimportant. Finance, education, and high-tech research and development are actually the roots of that tree. We have to plant this root in our yard and grow our own roots. . Some people say that this openness means that foreigners should come in to earn our money. This is different. In the past, our companies went to other people’s listings to follow other people’s rules, and it was mainly people’s investors who profited from our companies. But now it is planted in our own yard, when to water and when to bask in the sun, the rules are up to us, so the dominant power is different. I have timed out. Sorry, Wang Haihan is offended. thank you all. ? Can you make money when you speculate in the Chinese stock market? Can’t make it. Where is the capital appreciation brought about by that part of the economic reform? Nasdaq, this is how we originally linked to the United States. So the United States said it would delink from China. I think this is not a bad thing. The industrialization we want has been achieved, and it is now decoupling. I think it’s in the right place, but it scares some of us who don’t know the underlying logic inside. I think opening up the financial market is actually the money we Chinese people save in the future. It is directly converted into capital and investment in the financial market in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Our savings are directly converted into investment, not into foreign exchange reserves and placed in US Treasury bonds, European Treasury bonds, and Japanese Treasury bonds, but directly in China’s domestic financial market. Financial players from all over the world come over and turn it into investment in this market. From this logical point of view, when our financial opening is completed, we will speculate in Shanghai stocks and Shenzhen stocks in the future. The chances of winning will be a little bit bigger, but they are still limited. In fact, in this process, don’t think that finance is virtual and unimportant. Finance, education, and high-tech research and development are actually the roots of that tree. We have to plant this root in our yard and grow our own roots. . Some people say that this openness means that foreigners should come in to earn our money. This is different. In the past, our companies went to other people’s listings to follow other people’s rules, and it was mainly people’s investors who profited from our companies. But now it is planted in our own yard, when to water and when to bask in the sun, the rules are up to us, so the dominant power is different. I have timed out. Sorry, Wang Haihan is offended. thank you all. Come, turn it into investment in this market. From this logical point of view, when our financial opening is completed, we will speculate in Shanghai stocks and Shenzhen stocks in the future. The chances of winning will be a little bit bigger, but they are still limited. In fact, in this process, don’t think that finance is virtual and unimportant. Finance, education, and high-tech research and development are actually the roots of that tree. We have to plant this root in our yard and grow our own roots. . Some people say that this openness means that foreigners should come in to earn our money. This is different. In the past, our companies went to other people’s listings to follow other people’s rules, and it was mainly people’s investors who profited from our companies. But now it is planted in our own yard, when to water and when to bask in the sun, the rules are up to us, so the dominant power is different. I have timed out. Sorry, Wang Haihan is offended. thank you all. Come, turn it into investment in this market. From this logical point of view, when our financial opening is completed, we will speculate in Shanghai stocks and Shenzhen stocks in the future. The chances of winning will be a little bit bigger, but they are still limited. In fact, in this process, don’t think that finance is virtual and unimportant. Finance, education, and high-tech research and development are actually the roots of that tree. We have to plant this root in our yard and grow our own roots. . Some people say that this openness means that foreigners should come in to earn our money. This is different. In the past, our companies went to other people’s listings to follow other people’s rules, and it was mainly people’s investors who profited from our companies. But now it is planted in our own yard, when to water and when to bask in the sun, the rules are up to us, so the dominant power is different. I have timed out. Sorry, Wang Haihan is offended. thank you all.
