Common Sense Evaluation

Historical Trajectory of Autism Prevalence

Early Period (1960s-1970s)

The earliest autism prevalence studies conducted in the 1960s and 1970s reported rates between 2 to 4 cases per 10,000 children (0.2-0.4 per 1,000). A landmark study by Donald Treffert in Wisconsin during the mid-1960s found a prevalence rate of 0.01% (1 in 10,000). These early studies primarily identified children with what would now be considered profound or severe autism.

Transition Period (1980s-1990s)

The 1980s marked a significant turning point with the publication of DSM-III in 1980, which officially defined autism as a developmental disorder separate from schizophrenia. By the late 1980s, prevalence estimates had increased to about 1 per 1,000 children. The introduction of DSM-III-R in 1987 and DSM-IV in 1994 broadened diagnostic criteria, contributing to increased identification rates.

Modern Era (2000-Present)

The CDC began systematic tracking through the ADDM Network in 2000. The progression of prevalence rates shows consistent increases:

• 2000: 1 in 150 children (6.7 per 1,000)

• 2008: 1 in 88 children (11.3 per 1,000)

• 2016: 1 in 54 children (18.5 per 1,000)

• 2020: 1 in 36 children (27.6 per 1,000)

• 2022: 1 in 31 children (32.2 per 1,000)